By ERIC FISHER
Jimmie Johnson. Jimmie Johnson. Jimmie Johnson.
OK, now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s look at the race for second place.
Seriously, when NASCAR kicks off its Sprint Cup Series this Sunday with the Daytona 500, the overriding question will be whether anyone can overtake Johnson, who has won the last four NASCAR championships. Johnson is the gold standard. Will he win an unprecedented fifth straight title?
The following is a preview of the 2010 season. We’ll examine the issues, the questions and the drivers. But it will all be in context of “Who can catch Jimmie Johnson?”
Why should we expect anyone to be able to catch Johnson?
If Johnson continues at his current level, nobody will catch him. So why should anyone expect Johnson’s performance will drop off? Johnson and his wife are expecting their first child in July. Maybe, after the baby is born, Johnson’s priorities will change and his unmatched preparation will tail off just a little bit. Yes, we’re grasping at straws. But this is a glimmer of light for Johnson’s competitors.
Can anyone compete with Hendrick Motorsports?
The domination of Hendrick Motorsports extends well beyond Johnson. Hendrick swept the top three spots in the standings last year, with Mark Martin and Jeff Gordon finishing second and third, respectively. Dale Earnhardt Jr., in 25th place, was the only Hendrick driver outside the top three. The fact that Martin and Earnhardt earned front-row starting positions for the Daytona 500 is a good omen for Hendrick. Other teams may narrow the gap, but Hendrick should still be the top team.
Can any of the other Hendrick Motorsports drivers overtake Johnson?
Martin was the only serious challenger to Johnson’s throne last season. Martin, the best driver never to win a NASCAR championship, made a successful return to a full-time schedule by winning five races and finishing as the overall runner-up for the fifth time. At age 51, Martin will once again be a sentimental favorite to capture his first crown.
Gordon is another potential challenger. He had more top 10 finishes (25) than any other driver last year despite battling a sore back. If Gordon can reach victory lane a few more times than last year, when he did it once, he could challenge Johnson. I expect Earnhardt to improve dramatically, but not enough to challenge for the overall title.\
Could any of the non-Hendrick drivers who qualified for the Chase last year challenge Johnson?
Kasey Kahne, Juan Pablo Montoya, Ryan Newman and Brian Vickers all had fine seasons in 2009 and may continue their success in 2010. None of them, however, has the consistency and organization to contend for a championship.
Denny Hamlin, with four wins last year while finishing fifth, was considered a threat to catch Johnson until he tore the ACL in his left knee on Jan. 22. You can drive a car with a torn ACL, especially in the left knee, but it’s difficult to believe the lack of stability in that knee won’t affect his performance.
Carl Edwards, anointed the top challenger before last season, failed to win a race as Roush Fenway Racing struggled. Expect Edwards to win races this year and perhaps regain that mantle as the top challenger. Tony Stewart has the competitiveness and talent to challenge Johnson. Kurt Busch and Greg Biffle have outside shots at being serious contenders.
Could any driver who didn’t qualify for last year’s Chase challenge Johnson?
Kyle Busch is the obvious answer. The mercurial Busch finished 13th last season despite having four wins, as many as anyone except Johnson and Martin. Busch has talent and the drive to succeed. The question is whether he can control his emotions and avoid making too many enemies, especially with NASCAR loosening the reins on aggressive driving.
Will NASCAR’s attempts to create more excitement by allowing more bumping affect Johnson?
The additional leeway given to drivers to aggressively bump and draft in close quarters adds an element of unpredictability. Predictability favors the status quo, which favors Johnson. Unpredictability favors change, which works against Johnson. An accident or two at inopportune times could bring Johnson back to the pack and derail his championship train. NASCAR’s encouragement of more aggressive driving could be the greatest threat to King Jimmie’s championship reign.
Who will qualify for the Chase?
This is a tougher chore than in recent years. Consider that Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, Clint Bowyer, Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr. and Earnhardt all finished outside the top 12 last season.
Let’s start with Hendrick’s big three of Johnson, Martin and Gordon. Edwards and Stewart should qualify. Kyle Busch is too good not to qualify for the Chase again. The acceptance of aggressive driving perfectly fits Montoya’s style. Hamlin barely hangs in there with his knee injury. The final four spots are filled by Kurt Busch, Biffle, Vickers and … Junior!
Who will win the Sprint Cup?
Johnson adds one for the thumb. But he will be severely tested this year. 3. Mark Martin; 2. Kyle Busch; 1. Jimmie Johnson.
February 17, 2010
COULD ANYBODY CHALLENGE JIMMIE?
September 24, 2009
WHICH DRIVER WILL MONSTER MILE DEVOUR?
By ERIC FISHER
History reveals that it’s likely that at least one Chase driver will suffer an awful afternoon Sunday during the Dover 400. Who will be the Monster Mile’s next victim?
Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards, Roush Fenway Racing’s Chase tandem, certainly don’t expect to be victimized. Biffle won this race last year and had finished in the top six in each of the last six races at Dover.
Edwards has been even better. In 10 races at Dover, Edwards’ average finish is between 7th and 8th place. Before finishing seventh at the Autism Speak 400 earlier this year (Biffle was third), Edwards had finished in the top three during the previous five races at Dover, including a victory in 2007.
Roush’s drivers, in ninth (Biffle) and 11th place (Edwards) in the Chase for the Sprint Cup, are looking forward to making up some ground at Dover. Others, however, would be pleased simply to escape Dover without a disaster.
Denny Hamlin, just 35 points behind leader Mark Martin, hopes that he’s done being a victim of the Monster. Hamlin finished 36th in the Autism Speaks 400 earlier this year — and that was his best finish in his last four Dover races.
Kasey Kahne, already in a deep Chase hole because his crankshaft broke Sunday in New Hampshire, also has been a wreck, literally and figuratively, at Dover. Kahne’s average finish at Dover is a horrific 24th, and that includes a sixth-place finish earlier this year.
Dover has also been a horror show for Brian Vickers, whose average finish there is between 21st and 22nd. Tony Stewart, who swept the Dover races in 2000, has finished outside the top 10 in seven of his last eight races at Dover, including finishes of 40th and 41st.
The Hendrick Motorsports trio of Martin, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon should feel comfortable at Dover. All three have four career victories at Dover, although Gordon hasn’t won there since 2001 and has had some poor finishes. Johnson won at Dover earlier this year.
Who will be the victor? Who will be the victim? We’ll find out Sunday at the Monster Mile.
September 17, 2009
EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED IN THE CHASE
By ERIC FISHER
The Chase for the Sprint Cup is upon us, and the only aspect that is predictable is that this year’s Chase should be unpredictable.
This year’s Chase should be unpredictable because the whole year has been unpredictable. Who thought Brian Vickers would make the Chase? Juan Pablo Montoya? Kasey Kahne? Ryan Newman?
How many people predicted that Kyle Busch would tie for the lead in victories – and miss the Chase? How many thought Matt Kenseth, who had never missed the Chase, would miss it after winning this year’s first two races?
Despite NASCAR’s unpredictability, I will still take a stab at predicting the Chase, which begins Sunday in New Hampshire.
LONGSHOTS: Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle. I doubt any of these three veteran drivers will be celebrating when the Chase is over.
Earlier this season, Newman looked like a championship contender, putting together five top-five finishes in seven races. However, Newman hasn’t finished in the top five since June 7. Making the Chase was an accomplishment. Winning the Chase looks like an impossible dream.
Busch, the 2004 NASCAR champion, had 14 top 10 finishes this season, but it’s been a long time since his lone victory on March 8. Busch finished second at last Saturday’s Chevy Rock & Roll 400, but the impending departure of crew chief Pat Tryson for Martin Truex Jr.’s crew at the end of the year is a bad sign for Busch’s Chase prospects.
Biffle, who finished second in 2005, won the first two Chase races last year, so maybe he deserves better odds. Biffle has been consistent this season, but he only has two top-three finishes – and both of them were third. Add in Roush Fenway Racing’s problems this year, and Biffle becomes a longshot to win the Sprint Cup.
NOT-THE-USUAL SUSPECTS: Kasey Kahne, Brian Vickers, Juan Pablo Montoya. These three drivers have nothing to lose. Nobody expects them to win. Then again, few people expected this trio to be in the Chase, either.
Kahne went nearly three months without a top-five finish, but he turned his season around with a victory on June 21. Kahne added a victory earlier this month at Atlanta Motor Speedway. A confidence-building victory could make Kahne a top contender.
Vickers made an amazing push, including a victory at the Carfax 400 in Michigan, to qualify for the Chase. The good news is that Vickers hasn’t finished outside the top 12 during the last nine races. The bad news is that the first Chase race is in Loudon, N.H., where Vickers finished 35th at the end of June.
Montoya is an intriguing contender. He made the Chase because he reined in his aggressive tendencies and took fewer gambles. Now that he’s in the Chase, however, Montoya can be more aggressive, making him a dark horse to win the championship.
THE USUAL SUSPECTS: Jeff Gordon, Carl Edwards. Gordon and Edwards can’t be counted out, but both drivers’ championship hopes are dampened by injuries.
Gordon is no longer a regular in the top five, as he was at the start of the year. But he does have three second-place finishes in the past 12 races, and he finished third last Saturday in Richmond. Gordon could win the Chase, but nagging back problems make that task more difficult.
Edwards, my preseason choice to win the Sprint Cup, hasn’t been to victory lane this year. His winless streak may be partially due to Roush Fenway Racing’s struggles. Not helping matters is the broken foot Edwards sustained two weeks ago while playing Frisbee.
TOP CONTENDERS: Tony Stewart, Mark Martin, Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson. Johnson, the three-time defending champion, is the favorite, but don’t count the others out.
Stewart has had a remarkable first season as a driver-owner, running away with the points lead. None of his three wins, however, came on Chase tracks. Furthermore, Stewart hasn’t cracked the top 10 in his last four races. He might not be able to turn it on again once the Chase begins.
In contrast to Stewart, Hamlin enters the Chase as NASCAR’s hottest driver. He’s been in the top 10 for the past six races, including victories at Pocono and last Saturday in Richmond. Hamlin finished third in the 2006 Chase as a rookie. He may finish higher this season.
The sentimental favorite is the 50-year-old Martin, who finished second overall four times, most recently in 2002. Can Martin, who won more races (four) than any of the other Chase contenders this season, shake the best-driver-never-to-win-a-championship tag? Don’t bet against him.
The Chase is Johnson’s time of year. There’s a reason he has won three straight championships. If you’re looking for a reason that Johnson won’t win, it’s that he finished outside the top 10, including a 33rd- and 36th-place finish, in five of the past six races. On the other hand, two of Johnson’s three victories this year came at Dover and Martinsville, both of which host Chase races.
PREDICTION: Johnson will hold off Martin … for second place. In this unpredictable year, I’m picking Hamlin to win it all.
