By ERIC FISHER
Before we dissect the Phillies and their World Series performance, let’s take a few moments to celebrate their tremendous season.
OK. That’s long enough. (Just kidding!)
Disappointment over the ending is understandable. But we should remember that, by reaching the World Series in consecutive years, these Phillies did something that no previous team in franchise history had accomplished.
All right. Those are enough platitudes. Now it’s time to talk about what went wrong and how to fix it.
The bottom line is pitching. Perhaps you’ve heard me say this before. The importance of pitching is a theme I’ve been focusing on since the Phillies acquired Cliff Lee at the trade deadline.
How important is pitching? Think of it this way: How would the Phillies have done during the playoffs without Lee and Pedro Martinez, neither of whom was with the club the first half of the season?
The importance of pitching is also evident by looking at the Yankees. With the exception of Game 5, when the Phillies chased A.J. Burnett early, the Yankees received very good starting pitching.
Left-handers CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte kept the Phillies’ left-handed bats tied up in knots. Chase Utley had a terrific series, but Ryan Howard set a World Series record by striking out 13 times and Raul Ibanez wasn’t a major factor. Of all the Phillies’ regular starters, only Utley, Ibanez, Carlos Ruiz and Jayson Werth hit above .250 during the Series.
By contrast, with the exception of Lee’s two outings and Martinez in Game 2, the Phillies’ starters were either mediocre or poor. You’re not going to win the World Series with three quality starts in six games.
The other aspect of the pitching staff is the bullpen. Once again, the Phillies came up short.
If there was a defining moment in the World Series, it was the ninth inning of Game 4. The Phillies had just tied the game in the bottom of the eighth on Pedro Feliz’s dramatic home run. Emotions were high. The crowd was roaring. The momentum appeared to be on the Phillies’ side.
Then Brad Lidge entered the game. I’m still puzzled as to why manager Charlie Manuel didn’t leave Ryan Madson in the game, especially because the pitcher’s spot in the batting order was coming up in the bottom of the ninth, but that’s a separate issue. The problem here is that Lidge gave up three runs and the Phillies lost, 7-4.
Instead of tying the series, the Phillies fell into a 3-1 hole. That’s a difficult hole to climb out of against a team as good as the Yankees.
This isn’t meant to single out Lidge. As a whole, the Phillies bullpen didn’t consistently maintain leads or keep the Phillies in the game.
Consistency is what you need from your bullpen. Yes, there will occasionally be blown saves or bad outings. Nobody’s perfect – except Lidge last season. But there was far too much uncertainty in the Phillies bullpen this season.
Whether Lidge can return to his old form will be a key to the Phillies’ fortunes next season. If Lidge returns to his role as the anchor, the rest of the bullpen can fall into place. Madson can resume his role as the “bridge to Lidge.” Having a defined role and a reduced workload from this season should be beneficial to Madson.
The rest of the bullpen needs work. Assuming Scott Eyre recovers from his impending elbow surgery, he is a valuable left-hander. The big question is whether J.C. Romero will regain his effectiveness. If not, the Phillies need another left-hander in the bullpen.
Manuel is confident that Lidge can once again be a solid closer. He also said he’s confident that Cole Hamels can be a good pitcher once again.
Hamels, a playoff hero in 2008, became a whipping boy in 2009. He followed up an inconsistent regular season with a poor postseason. One reason for the change may have been the huge increase in innings he pitched in 2008 compared to previous years.
If Hamels returns to his 2008 form, the Phillies’ rotation could be outstanding. They’ll have Lee for a full season. Add Joe Blanton and J.A. Happ to the mix, and the Phillies have an excellent rotation.
The Phillies must improve their bench. Nobody the Phillies send up to pinch-hit scares the opposition. Along with bullpen insurance, upgrading the bench is a major offseason priority.
Otherwise, there isn’t much to fix. With Howard, Utley and Jimmy Rollins, the Phillies have a terrific nucleus. I’m not sure you can count on Jayson Werth to hit 36 home runs next year, but he’s developed into a very good player. Ibanez, Ruiz, Feliz and Shane Victorino all make solid contributions.
The Phillies are still in their prime. They could get back to the World Series again next season. Or the year after that. Or the year after that.
We can’t allow our disappointment over a World Series defeat to overshadow the fact that this may be the best Phillies team of all-time.
November 5, 2009
PITCHING HURT PHILS IN SERIES
November 1, 2009
SIXERS’ JORDAN FACES NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TASK
By ERIC FISHER
“Good evening, Mr. Jordan. Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to guide the 76ers to a winning record and beyond the first round of the NBA playoffs. This tape will self-destruct in five seconds …”
(cue up the Mission: Impossible theme song)
What? You didn’t know the NBA season started?
With the Phillies dominating the regional sports scene, you are forgiven if you didn’t realize the Sixers started their season on Oct. 28. The Sixers lost to Orlando, 120-106 – and it wasn’t that close. The Sixers trailed by 31 points after three quarters.
Fortunately for the Sixers, the eyes of an overwhelming majority of sports fans in this area were trained on Game 1 of the World Series. Perhaps only general manager Ed Stefanski’s family watched the second half of Wednesday’s lopsided defeat.
(The preceding paragraph raises the following question: If the Sixers fall in the forest – or Florida – and nobody sees them fall, does their loss count in the standings?)
The opening night loss to the Magic, who ousted the Sixers from the playoffs last spring, served as a reminder that the Sixers haven’t advanced beyond the first round of the playoffs since 2003, Larry Brown’s final season as head coach. Since 2003, the Sixers have been coached by Randy Ayers, Chris Ford, Jim O’Brien, Maurice Cheeks and Tony DiLeo.
The Sixers, who beat Milwaukee on Friday in their home opener, did not win a playoff series during their tenures. Only O’Brien and DiLeo had winning records during the regular season, with O’Brien’s 43 victories in 2004-05 being the high-water mark for this team since Brown departed.
The preceding two paragraphs demonstrate the uphill challenge faced by new head coach Eddie Jordan. Quite simply, this team doesn’t know how to win.
This does not mean, however, that the cupboard is bare. Jordan has some ingredients with which to create a winning recipe.
The Sixers are not bereft of talent. Small forward/off-guard Andre Iguodala is versatile all-around player, forward Elton Brand is a former all-star and forward Thaddeus Young is an exciting young player.
Young, 21, isn’t the only good, young player. Marreese Speights, a first-round draft pick in 2008 and perhaps the only bright spot during the season-opening loss to the Magic, is 22. Starting point guard Lou Williams turned 23 on Wednesday.
Even Brand, 30, isn’t that old. Iguodala is just 25. Center Samuel Dalembert is 28.
The key to the Sixers’ future is for Jordan to transform the young talent into the core of a championship contender. Transforming the Sixers’ fortunes, however, is easier said than done.
The Sixers are stuck in NBA purgatory. They’re too good to receive a high draft pick. They’re too bad to challenge for a title.
For the past six years, the Sixers have finished with between 33 and 43 victories. The 43-39 season under O’Brien in 2004-05 is the only winning record during this six-year stretch.
The Sixers also have little flexibility under the salary cap. That is another reason they’re stuck in NBA purgatory. Brand has approximately $66 million remaining on the four years of his contract. That contract makes him virtually untradeable.
Brand played in just 29 games last season due to a shoulder injury. That means he has played in just 37 games the past two seasons. That leaves a lot of question marks.
Furthermore, there are questions about how well Brand fits in with the Sixers’ style. The young players love to fast-break up and down the floor. Brand is more of a half-court player.
The Sixers will win more games during the regular season using a fast-break offense that takes advantage of their youth and energy. But, as has been proven time and time again, you need a strong halfcourt game to advance in the playoffs.
Williams’ game seems better-suited for a full-court track meet than a halfcourt game. Williams, who takes over at point guard from veteran Andre Miller, must distribute the ball well and get it to the hot hand, a skill at which Miller was particularly adept. Miller knew when to pass and when to shoot. Williams seems more inclined to do the latter than the former.
The Sixers may win more games with an up-tempo style, but they won’t go far in the playoffs. Ironically, Brand is the one part that seems to be a better fit for a halfcourt offense. That leaves him out of sync with the other players.
Consequently, the Sixers may find themselves in the same boat as last year. And the year before that. They will win close to half their games, but they won’t go anywhere in the playoffs.
Jordan’s challenge is to change those perceptions. His challenge is to meld some of the seemingly mismatched parts.
Jordan’s mission is difficult. But it’s not impossible.
The Sixers might achieve a winning record. It will remain difficult, however, to advance beyond the first round of the playoffs, particularly if they don’t have homecourt advantage.
Let’s say the Sixers finish 42-42 and lose in the first round. Sound familiar?
October 29, 2009
THE NEXT DYNASTY…WHY NOT THE PHILS?
By ERIC FISHER
Why not the Phillies?
Only one team in the past 15 years has won consecutive World Series. Why not the Phillies?
A National League team hasn’t won consecutive World Series since the Cincinnati Reds in 1975-76. Why not the Phillies?
Why not the Phillies? That is the question I asked before this season started. It’s the same question I’m asking today.
Why can’t the Phillies repeat as World Series champions? The Phillies have already become the first NL team to make consecutive trips to the World Series since Atlanta in 1995-96. So why can’t they be the first NL team in 33 years to win the Series two straight years?
There is the fact that the Phillies are facing the New York Yankees. This is no small matter. In fact, based on pre-Series commentary, you might have thought the Yankees were the defending champions instead of the Phillies.
The Yankees happen to be the last team to win consecutive World Series, having reigned supreme from 1998-2000. But history isn’t all the Yankees have on their side. They also have a loaded lineup.
The best team money can buy features an all-star infield that includes Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira. Perhaps more importantly, their roster features starting pitchers CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, both of whom were signed to big free-agent contracts during this past offseason. If the series goes seven games, Sabathia and Burnett may pitch five times, with Sabathia likely to pitch three times.
Sabathia and Andy Pettitte are left-handed. That should be effective against the Phillies’ left-handed power trio of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez – at least according to conventional wisdom. Utley, however, turned conventional wisdom on its head Wednesday night with two solo home runs off Sabathia.
In fact, the Phillies haven’t shown any fear of Sabathia, who had just one loss since August 1. The Phillies knocked Sabathia out of the game during last year’s playoff series against Milwaukee – Shane Victorino’s grand slam was the big blow – and beat him again Wednesday even though he entered the World Series with a 3-0 record and 1.19 ERA during this year’s playoffs.
The Phillies, however, have some pretty good starting pitching of their own. Cliff Lee, a midseason acquisition, has been outstanding during his first postseason appearance. Lee picked up two victories against the Rockies, one against the Dodgers and got the Phillies off on the right foot in the World Series with a dominating Game 1 performance.
Lee did not allow an earned run during his start against the Dodgers or Wednesday’s 6-1 triumph. He struck out 10 and walked none as he calmly silenced the Yankees’ big bats.
(Imagine how Cleveland fans must feel watching former Indians stars Sabathia and Lee starting Game 1 of the World Series.)
Lee is joined in the rotation by fellow Cy Young Award winner Pedro Martinez, the Game 2 starter. (For those reading this column in Friday’s newspaper rather than Thursday at www.myerstownherald.com, Game 2 ended too late to be included in this column.) That duo is followed by Cole Hamels, who has struggled this season but was the standout pitcher of last season’s playoffs and the MVP of the World Series. It would be a huge boost for the Phillies if Hamels could find his old magic.
Starting pitching is almost always the crucial factor in a seven-game series. As much as the Phillies and Yankees are renowned for their powerhouse lineups, pitching will determine which team will prevail.
The performance of the Phillies’ starters is particularly important. The Yankees, with perhaps the best closer of all-time in Mariano Rivera, have the edge in the bullpen. The Phillies bullpen, despite success against the Rockies and Dodgers, is a bit more suspect.
The Phillies bullpen came through with saves in the NLDS and NLCS, but those relievers allowed an awful lot of runners to reach base. They escaped most of those jams unscathed, but the Phillies don’t want to take the same chances with the Yankees.
That is why it’s so vitally important that the Phillies’ starters pitch deep into games, as Lee did during Game 1.
Lee’s complete-game victory broke the Yankees’ World Series winning streak against the Phillies. The Yankees swept the Whiz Kids in 1950. The Phillies are seeking revenge in 2009.
The Phillies’ players, of course, weren’t even born in 1950. Some of them weren’t even born in 1980, when the Phillies won their first World Series. But these Phillies do have a sense of history.
Beating the Yankees wouldn’t merely give them two straight championships. Beating the Yankees would validate their claim to greatness.
These aren’t the Tampa Rays. These are the Yankees.
The big, bad Yankees. Jeter. A-Rod. Johnny Damon. Hideki Matsui. Sabathia. Burnett. Teixeira. Rivera.
Make no mistake about it. The Yankees were the marquee team entering the World Series.
But the Phillies entered the World Series as champions. Will they leave it as champions?
Why not?
October 22, 2009
PHILS GIVE FANS BOOST OF CONFIDENCE
By ERIC FISHER
This World Series thing is becoming addictive. And it’s a habit we’d prefer not to kick.
After going 125 years with just one World Series championship, the Phillies are in position to capture their second straight World Series title.
Remember, this is a team that had only been to five World Series before last season. The franchise hadn’t even won a playoff game for 15 years. But last year changed all that.
The Phillies are no longer the losingest team in professional sports. Well, technically, they still have the most losses of any pro sports franchise in North American history. But the 10,000-plus losses no longer define the Phillies.
Now, the Phillies are winners. They know it. Their fans know it. The opposition knows it. Everybody knows it.
When the Los Angeles Dodgers entered the ninth inning of Game 4 of the National League Championship Series with a 4-3 lead and flamethrower Jonathan Broxton on the mound, the Phillies knew they had a chance. They took advantage of their opportunity with Jimmy Rollins’ clutch two-run, walk-off double, lifting the Phillies to a 5-4 triumph and changing the complexion of the series.
When the Dodgers loaded the bases with nobody in the eighth inning of Game 5, it was the Dodgers’ opportunity to alter the series. Disaster was looming. But Ryan Madson calmly retired the next three batters, just as everyone seemingly knew he would.
It’s cool to see the Phillies play with so much confidence. It’s even cooler to see a fan base genetically ingrained with cynicism and a perennial sense of impending doom transformed into a fountain of positivity.
No longer do Phillies fans expect to lose. They expect to win. At times, they almost seem to will their team to victory.
The Phillies, of course, aren’t lacking in the will-to-win department. Nor are they lacking in ways to win.
These Phillies have numerous paths to victory. They can outslug you. They can outpitch you. They can beat you with their speed. They can beat you with their defense.
The Dodgers and Colorado Rockies can attest to the Phillies’ versatility. Both teams were shut down by ace left-hander Cliff Lee. Both teams, especially the Dodgers, were beaten by the Phillies’ bats.
If they aren’t scoring many runs, the Phillies aren’t done. Their pitching can keep them in the game.
If their starting pitcher struggles, the Phillies aren’t done, either. This team is never out of the game. If the bullpen can prevent further damage, there will be plenty of time for the Phillies’ offense to get cranked up and get them back in the ballgame.
The Phillies have Ryan Howard, who drove in a run in each of the Phillies’ first eight playoff games this year. Howard is a star. His power is scary.
The Phillies have Chase Utley, who has reached base safely in a remarkable 25 straight games. Utley shook off two errors earlier in the Dodgers series, refusing to allow those mistakes to affect him at the plate.
The Phillies have Rollins, who shook off a mediocre series at the plate with the series-changing double in Game 4.
The Phillies have Jayson Werth, whose five playoff home runs will make teams think twice about pitching around Howard.
Let’s not forget Shane Victorino, Raul Ibanez, Pedro Feliz and the overlooked Carlos Ruiz, all of whom contribute at the plate and in the field.
The offensive outbursts, however, came against average pitching. The Phillies didn’t put big offensive numbers against Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, or Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. As I wrote before the NLCS, the Dodgers’ starting rotation doesn’t scare anyone.
The Phillies will be facing a tougher task in the World Series. At press time, the Phils’ World Series opponent hadn’t been decided, although the Yankees could have wrapped up the ALCS by the time you read this column.
The Yankees’ rotation would include C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte. That’s not exactly Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla, Hiroki Kuroda and Randy Wolf.
On the other hand, the AL representative would be facing Lee, Cole Hamels, Pedro Martinez and either J.A. Happ or Joe Blanton. A rotation featuring two Cy Young Award winners and a World Series MVP isn’t exactly chopped liver.
The Phillies are the first team to reach the World Series in consecutive years since the Yankees ended a three-year championship run in 2000.
They are the first NL team to reach the World Series in consecutive seasons since Atlanta in 1995-96.
Their crowning achievement would be to repeat as World Series champions, which hasn’t been done by an NL team since Cincinnati’s Big Red Machine turned the trick in 1975-76.
As we wait for the World Series to begin on Wednesday, let’s remember last year’s World Series celebration, at which Hamels said, “One thing that I can not wait to do is go down that Broad Street parade again … and again … and again!”
For a fan base that suffered for so many years, it’s amazing to realize that Hamels’ words may come true.
October 15, 2009
DON’T UNDERESTIMATE THESE DODGERS
By ERIC FISHER
Who’s afraid of the big, bad wolf? What about a mid-sized, mid-80s throwing left-handed Wolf? No, Phillies fans aren’t scared of Los Angeles Dodgers starter Randy Wolf. And they aren’t scared of Vicente Padilla, another former Phillie in the Dodgers rotation.
The Dodgers rotation doesn’t frighten anyone. Clayton Kershaw (8-8) is a 21-year-old hurler with a bright future, but he isn’t scaring anybody yet. (If you’re reading this column in the Myerstown Herald newspaper instead of at www.myerstownherald.com on Thursday, you already know how Kershaw fared in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series.)
Padilla, the starter for Game 2 Friday afternoon, was 4-0 with a 3.20 ERA after being signed by the Dodgers. But Philles fans remember Padilla’s struggles with consistency, not to mention that he was released on August 17 by the Texas Rangers, who were contending for the American League wild card at the time.
Hiroki Kuroda, returning from a herniated disk in his neck, will be the Game 3 starter. Wolf is scheduled to start Game 4.
Scared yet? Well, let me put a little fear into you.
Remember those fearsome pitching duos that we preferred the Phillies avoid during the postseason? San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain and St. Louis’ Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter? The Dodgers finished ahead of the Giants in the NL West. They dispatched the Cardinals and their vaunted pitching staff and lineup, 3-0, in their playoff series.
The Dodgers beat those teams without an ace. That tells you something about the quality of the Dodgers’ lineup and bullpen.
Their success also tells you something about manager Joe Torre, as if we weren’t already familiar with his success. Torre repeatedly makes the right moves. He’s changed his rotation for each round of the playoffs. He used closer Jonathan Broxton in the eighth inning of each playoff game with the Cardinals.
But Torre isn’t doing it with mirrors. The Dodgers may not have starter pitchers with the pedigree of Cy Young Award winners Pedro Martinez and Cliff Lee or last year’s playoff hero, Cole Hamels, but L.A. has plenty of talent.
The Dodgers outfield may be even better than the Phillies’ vaunted outfield of Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino and Raul Ibanez. We’re all familiar with hitting machine Manny Ramirez, but casual fans may not be as familiar with Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp.
There is very little the 24-year-old Kemp doesn’t do well. He can hit, run, field, etc. Ethier seems to be coming into his own at age 27, entering what are often the prime years of a baseball player’s career.
Ramirez is always dangerous, but he hasn’t performed at Manny-like levels since returning from a 50-game suspension for using a banned substance. Ethier and Kemp are the outfielders who should be the biggest cause of concern for Phillies fans.
Another concern is the bullpen. The Phillies bullpen still is a huge question mark. I’m not buying the Brad Lidge resurrection based on two outings, one of which included more balls than strikes and one of which consisted of retiring one batter.
On the other hand, the Dodgers bullpen is very good. The Dodgers acquired former Orioles closer George Sherrill before the trade deadline to complement Broxton. The bullpen has also been bolstered by Ronald Belisario, who was rescued from the scrap heap and rewarded the Dodgers with a 2.04 ERA.
It would behoove the Phillies to take advantage of the Dodgers’ starting pitchers. A close game in which the bullpens play a major role is not a scenario favoring the Phillies.
Another factor working against the Phillies in close games is the bench. The Phillies’ bench players are not exactly a distinguished group. Unless Matt Stairs can repeat history with another bomb off Broxton, the bench edge certainly goes to the Dodgers.
Phillies fans should recognize one of the Dodgers’ big bats off the bench – although the uniform might look a little strange. Jim Thome, a short-lived folk hero who symbolized the rebirth of the Phillies’ franchise as it closed out Veterans Stadium and moved into Citizens Bank Park, now swings his lumber for the Dodgers. It was an amicable parting, but you know Thome must have dreamed of hitting a big playoff home run at Citizens Bank Park, albeit in red and white instead of Dodgers blue.
Speaking of those who at one time envisioned success in Citizens Bank Park, the Dodgers’ third-base coach is former Phillies shortstop and manager Larry Bowa, whom the Phillies replaced with Charlie Manuel.
Are you scared yet? Good, you should be. The Phillies handled the Dodgers during last year’s NLCS, but this year’s series could be very different.
After spending almost an entire column building up the Dodgers, let me tell you why the Phillies should win: Ryan Howard; Chase Utley; Jimmy Rollins; Raul Ibanez; Jayson Werth; Shane Victorino; Pedro Feliz; Carlos Ruiz.
Here are five more reasons: Cole Hamels; Cliff Lee; Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ, Pedro Martinez.
The playoffs are about pitching. The Phillies’ rotation is better than the Dodgers’ rotation.
PREDICTION: Phillies in 6.
October 8, 2009
PHILS’ STARTERS MUST GO DEEP
The playoffs are all about pitching. Pitching is how the Phillies won the World Series last year. Pitching is the path the Phillies must take if they’re going to win the World Series again this year.
Hitting isn’t irrelevant. The Phillies’ big bats, featuring four members of the 30-plus home run club, are a big factor. But over time, good pitching trumps good hitting.
The Phillies didn’t bludgeon their way through the playoffs last year. They won because of terrific starting pitching, most notably Cole Hamels, and an even better bullpen, featuring Brad Lidge.
The bullpen is obviously no longer a strength. It’s a problem. Specifically, Lidge is a problem. It seemed as if Lidge was “lit up” as often as he was “lights out” this season.
Lidge isn’t the only problem in the bullpen. Brett Myers, who had hip surgery earlier this season, was hurt for much of September. Left-hander Scott Eyre is an elbow surgery waiting to happen. Chad Durbin hasn’t been very reliable. Kyle Kendrick is insurance in case a starter gets knocked out early. Antonio Bastardo is unproven, especially coming out of the bullpen.
The only reliever you can rely on right now is Ryan Madson. But Madson has struggled when moved to the closer’s role, blowing six save opportunities. In short, the bullpen is a mess.
As I wrote two weeks ago, the solution to the bullpen problems is outstanding starting pitching. The complete game by Cliff Lee in Game 1 is a perfect example.
Lee scattered six hits during the Phillies’ 5-1 Game 1 triumph over the Colorado Rockies. He didn’t allow a run until the ninth inning. At one point, Lee retired 16 consecutive batters.
Remember, the Phillies acquired Lee for the playoffs. They didn’t need him to win the National League East, although he certainly helped. They need him for the playoffs.
Hopefully, Hamels delivered a similar performance during Game 2. I am writing this column before the start of Game 2 – those reading my column at www.myerstownherald.com may be reading this while Hamels is still on the mound – so I don’t know if he turned in a complete game victory or was shelled. But either example would provide further evidence of the value of pitching.
If Hamels matched Lee’s performance, the Phillies should have a 2-0 series lead. The bullpen issues will have been rendered irrelevant – at least for the moment.
If, however, Hamels struggled, the bullpen issues will have reared their ugly head once again. Even if Hamels made it through six or seven innings and left with a lead, the bullpen issues will have returned to center stage.
If the series is tied as you read this, the pressure will be on right-hander Joe Blanton. Yes, the Phillies offense may score a ton of runs at Coors Field. But a more likely path to victory is good starting pitching.
Teams generally don’t score eight, nine or 10 runs during the playoffs. Those totals are usually piled up at the expense of bad pitchers on bad teams.
There aren’t any bad teams in the playoffs. Furthermore, teams don’t use their No. 5 starters during the playoffs. Sometimes they don’t even use their No. 4 starters.
The likelihood of scoring tons of runs against a top starter on a good team is slim. That’s why the key to playoff success is good pitching.
As we’ve discussed, the Phillies can’t rely on their bullpen. That doesn’t mean they won’t receive any good outings from their relievers. It means they can’t count on it.
The uncertainty in the bullpen makes it imperative that the starters pitch deep into games during the playoffs.
So, as the playoffs shift to Colorado this weekend, the pressure will be on Blanton and the Game 4 starter. Presumably, the Game 4 starter will be Pedro Martinez, although there’s the possibility it could be J.A. Happ or even Lee, pitching on short rest.
Martinez has not been able to pitch deep into games. At least he hasn’t been able to do that since manager Charlie Manuel let him throw 130 pitches in a decision that created short-term excitement but may have led to long-term problems.
If Martinez starts Game 4, it is likely that the bullpen will be needed. Even if Lee pitches Game 4, it’s asking a lot to have him pitch a complete game without his normal rest in between starts.
That’s why Blanton’s performance in Game 3 is so crucial. He must pitch deep into the game. Even if the Phillies lose Game 3, they can’t afford to use up their bullpen, which likely would be needed for Game 4.
The playoffs are about pitching. In the case of the Phillies, the playoffs are about starting pitching.
The performance of the Phillies’ starters is the key to their series with the Rockies. If they survive, it will be the key to the NLCS and, hopefully, the World Series.
If there is going to be another parade down Broad Street this year, the starting pitchers will have to lead the way.
October 1, 2009
FLYERS PRIMED TO CHALLENGE PENS
By ERIC FISHER
The Flyers’ first-round loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins last April contained two lessons. First, it demonstrated how close the Flyers were to beating the eventual Stanley Cup champions.
Second, it revealed what needed to be done to close the gap.
The Penguins, who have eliminated the Flyers the past two seasons (including the 2008 Eastern Conference finals), aren’t going anywhere. With centers Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin and goalie Marc-Andre Fleury, the Penguins should be Cup contenders for years. If the Flyers want to win that elusive Stanley Cup – the franchise’s last Cup was in 1975 – they’ll have to get past the Penguins.
General manager Paul Holmgren quickly addressed the Flyers’ most pressing needs. Improve the defense? Check. Acquire a veteran forward to take some pressure off budding stars Mike Richards and Jeff Carter? Check. Improve the goaltending? Check.
Holmgren also managed to make the Flyers even nastier. Few opponents will look forward to facing the orange and black this season.
The defense was improved with the blockbuster trade for Chris Pronger, whom the Flyers promptly signed to a long-term contract. Pronger (6-foot-6, 230 pounds), a former NHL MVP and Norris Trophy (best defenseman) winner, elevates an already-good defense to another level.
Pronger, who will turn 35 a week from Saturday, can help in numerous ways. Despite his age, Pronger can still log a ton of ice time. His shot will help the power play. His experience will help the younger defenseman and the team’s young leaders. And his physical presence and mean streak will have opponents’ heads on a swivel as they enter the Flyers’ zone or dig for pucks near the net.
Pronger was the marquee addition, but the quiet signing of veteran forward Ian Laperriere also was an adept move. Like Pronger, Laperriere, 35, adds veteran experience and toughness. Most importantly, Laperriere’s penalty-killing and face-off skills will give Carter and Richards a break.
Carter and Richards (both are 24) excelled last season, but both players were seemingly on the ice in every key situation. Many felt this dynamic young duo wore down by the end of the season, although shoulder injuries certainly impacted both players’ production during the Penguins series.
The final item on Holmgren’s checklist was goaltending. Martin Biron and Antero Niittymaki were both good, but there was a feeling that neither was good enough to lead the Flyers to the Cup.
The Flyers’ choice of Ray Emery as their new goalie raised some eyebrows. Emery misbehaved himself out of the NHL after a few turbulent years with the Ottawa Senators. Forced to play in Russia, the hot-tempered Emery didn’t help himself by taking a swing at the team’s trainer, a video clip that got played and replayed all over the world.
The Flyers, however, saw a talented goalie seeking another chance. They remembered that he led Ottawa to the 2007 Stanley Cup finals, a level the Flyers haven’t reached since 1997.
The Flyers took a risk by signing Emery, but it isn’t a big one. His relatively inexpensive contract is for one year. Considering he just turned 27 earlier this week, Emery could find himself a long-term home with good behavior and better goaltending.
Did I mention that Emery, who has adorned his goalie mask with pictures of Philadelphia boxing legends Bernard Hopkins and Joe Frazier, is a heckuva fighter?
Adding Pronger, Laperriere and Emery renewed the criticism that Holmgren and the Flyers organization are living in the past by trying to recreate The Broad Street Bullies.
Although it’s meant as criticism, the Bullies analogy works. The Bullies were renowned for their brawling, but they also were extremely talented. Bob Clarke, Bill Barber and Bernie Parent are in the NHL Hall of Fame. Rick MacLeish and Reggie Leach were top-notch snipers. Even chief enforcer Dave Schultz scored 20 goals during the Flyers’ first Cup-winning season.
So, yes, the Flyers added Pronger and Laperriere to a roster that already includes the pugnacious Riley Cote, Dan Carcillo and Arron Asham. But they also have tons of talent, most of it young.
Carter (46 goals last season) and Richards (30 goals) are joined in the 30-goal club by 27-year-old Scott Hartnell (30 goals). Joining these young guns this season are 21-year-old center Claude Giroux, who was impressive in half a season last year, and 20-year-old left wing James van Reimsdyk, the No. 2 pick in the 2007 draft.
Even Simon Gagne (34 goals), the longest-tenured Flyer, is just 29. If Danny Briere can bounce back from an injury-plagued season in which he played just 29 games, the Flyers’ offense could be fearsome.
After Kimmo Timonen and Pronger, the talented defense is also young, with Braydon Coburn, Matt Carle, Ryan Parent, Ole-Kristian Tollefson and Danny Syvret all 25 or younger.
The Flyers already have a spot in the big game – the Winter Classic at Fenway Park on January 1. But their eyes are on even bigger games, the ones that take place in late May and early June.
With their mix of experience and youth, combined with talent and toughness, they just might get there.
September 24, 2009
WHICH DRIVER WILL MONSTER MILE DEVOUR?
By ERIC FISHER
History reveals that it’s likely that at least one Chase driver will suffer an awful afternoon Sunday during the Dover 400. Who will be the Monster Mile’s next victim?
Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards, Roush Fenway Racing’s Chase tandem, certainly don’t expect to be victimized. Biffle won this race last year and had finished in the top six in each of the last six races at Dover.
Edwards has been even better. In 10 races at Dover, Edwards’ average finish is between 7th and 8th place. Before finishing seventh at the Autism Speak 400 earlier this year (Biffle was third), Edwards had finished in the top three during the previous five races at Dover, including a victory in 2007.
Roush’s drivers, in ninth (Biffle) and 11th place (Edwards) in the Chase for the Sprint Cup, are looking forward to making up some ground at Dover. Others, however, would be pleased simply to escape Dover without a disaster.
Denny Hamlin, just 35 points behind leader Mark Martin, hopes that he’s done being a victim of the Monster. Hamlin finished 36th in the Autism Speaks 400 earlier this year — and that was his best finish in his last four Dover races.
Kasey Kahne, already in a deep Chase hole because his crankshaft broke Sunday in New Hampshire, also has been a wreck, literally and figuratively, at Dover. Kahne’s average finish at Dover is a horrific 24th, and that includes a sixth-place finish earlier this year.
Dover has also been a horror show for Brian Vickers, whose average finish there is between 21st and 22nd. Tony Stewart, who swept the Dover races in 2000, has finished outside the top 10 in seven of his last eight races at Dover, including finishes of 40th and 41st.
The Hendrick Motorsports trio of Martin, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon should feel comfortable at Dover. All three have four career victories at Dover, although Gordon hasn’t won there since 2001 and has had some poor finishes. Johnson won at Dover earlier this year.
Who will be the victor? Who will be the victim? We’ll find out Sunday at the Monster Mile.
NO SAVING GRACE IN PHILS’ PEN
By ERIC FISHER
Paging Gene Garber! Paging Gene Garber! Please report to the Phillies bullpen.
If Garber, the sidearm-tossing farmer from Elizabethtown is too busy preparing for the fall harvest or fulfilling his duties as chairman of the Lancaster County Agricultural Preservation Board, we’ll check on Ron Reed’s availability.
Is Steve Bedrosian available? Al Holland? I know Mitch “Wild Thing” Williams would love to put his MLB Network microphone down for one final playoff experience.
The Phillies may be cruising to the playoffs – they could clinch the National League East crown this weekend – but their bullpen is in shambles.
The biggest problem is closer Brad Lidge. Lidge was Mr. Perfect in 2008, converting every save opportunity as the Phillies marched to a World Series title. This year, however, Lidge has been anything but automatic. Entering the Milwaukee series, Lidge was 0-8 with 11 blown saves and a 7.48 ERA.
To say that Lidge is having a confidence problem is akin to saying that O.J. Simpson has an image problem. Lidge professes that he’s still confident and manager Charlie Manuel is keeping the faith (barely), but when Lidge enters a game, everyone else is searching for the towel that grandstanding pitcher Curt Schilling put over his head during the 1993 playoffs when Williams starting putting men on base.
Manuel has taken great pains to rebuild Lidge’s confidence. He rarely puts him in a one-run game. Manuel’s reluctance to put Lidge in a one-run game was reinforced Wednesday when Lidge blew a one-run lead in a 7-6 loss to Florida. The perfect save situation for Lidge is preserving a three-run lead in the ninth inning against the hapless Washington Nationals.
Any save by Lidge is considered a success, even though many of these “successes” involve Lidge giving up a run or two. At this point, that’s an improvement.
It seems ludicrous to enter the postseason with Lidge as the closer. But what are Manuel’s other options?
The best option would be Ryan Madson. The ninth inning, however, hasn’t been Madson’s best companion. He excels in his eighth-inning role, but has had difficulty in the ninth. If you move Madson into the closer’s role, you risk ruining the eighth inning as well as the ninth.
There were suggestions that Brett Myers would be a possible option. After all, Myers worked as the closer in 2007. Like fine wine, memories of Myers’ performance as a closer seem to grow finer with age. The truth is Myers was a decent closer. Given a choice, you certainly would prefer not to have Myers closing out playoff games.
The Myers option may be a moot point. After returning quickly from hip surgery earlier this season, Myers suffered a strain of his right latissimus dorsi muscle below his right shoulder. He is scheduled to throw bullpen sessions on Tuesday and Thursday. He may not be able to pitch in the playoffs, let alone be the closer.
J.C. Romero, who missed the first 50 games due to a banned substance allegedly contained in a supplement he took, is hoping to return to action soon after missing most of the season with a strained left forearm. Scott Eyre, the other left-hander in the bullpen (aside from Jamie Moyer), has bone chips in his elbow and has received a cortisone shot. Eyre hasn’t pitched since Sept. 7.
Not having a left-hander in the bullpen could be a problem in the playoffs. One other candidate to fill that void is J.A. Happ. Then again, Happ missed two starts with an oblique injury, then had to leave his “return” start after three innings.
Happ, of course, may be the No. 4 starter in the rotation if Pedro Martinez doesn’t sufficiently recover from the stiff neck that caused him to leave his last start after three innings.
Who else is in the bullpen? Clay Condrey recently returned from the injured list. Chan Ho Park is recovering from a hamstring injury. It seems unlikely that Park will pitch again before the playoffs.
The good news is that Chad Durbin is healthy. The bad news is that his ERA (4.81) is not.
Perhaps this column is a little too gloomy. The Phillies still have the best lineup in the National League, if not all of baseball. The middle of their lineup, with Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez all having hit more than 30 home runs, is fearsome.
In the playoffs, though, runs are sometimes difficult to generate. Teams don’t get to fatten up on No. 5 pitchers. Sometimes they don’t even get to face the No. 4 pitcher.
Pitching is at a premium during the postseason. That’s why the Phillies acquired Cliff Lee. With Lee, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton and probably Martinez as their top four, the Phillies have a formidable playoff rotation.
The rotation may be the answer to many of the Phillies’ bullpen woes. If the starters pitch deep into games, there will be less work for the relievers.
If that doesn’t work, someone may have to drive out to Elizabethtown and drag Gene Garber off his farm.
September 17, 2009
EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED IN THE CHASE
By ERIC FISHER
The Chase for the Sprint Cup is upon us, and the only aspect that is predictable is that this year’s Chase should be unpredictable.
This year’s Chase should be unpredictable because the whole year has been unpredictable. Who thought Brian Vickers would make the Chase? Juan Pablo Montoya? Kasey Kahne? Ryan Newman?
How many people predicted that Kyle Busch would tie for the lead in victories – and miss the Chase? How many thought Matt Kenseth, who had never missed the Chase, would miss it after winning this year’s first two races?
Despite NASCAR’s unpredictability, I will still take a stab at predicting the Chase, which begins Sunday in New Hampshire.
LONGSHOTS: Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle. I doubt any of these three veteran drivers will be celebrating when the Chase is over.
Earlier this season, Newman looked like a championship contender, putting together five top-five finishes in seven races. However, Newman hasn’t finished in the top five since June 7. Making the Chase was an accomplishment. Winning the Chase looks like an impossible dream.
Busch, the 2004 NASCAR champion, had 14 top 10 finishes this season, but it’s been a long time since his lone victory on March 8. Busch finished second at last Saturday’s Chevy Rock & Roll 400, but the impending departure of crew chief Pat Tryson for Martin Truex Jr.’s crew at the end of the year is a bad sign for Busch’s Chase prospects.
Biffle, who finished second in 2005, won the first two Chase races last year, so maybe he deserves better odds. Biffle has been consistent this season, but he only has two top-three finishes – and both of them were third. Add in Roush Fenway Racing’s problems this year, and Biffle becomes a longshot to win the Sprint Cup.
NOT-THE-USUAL SUSPECTS: Kasey Kahne, Brian Vickers, Juan Pablo Montoya. These three drivers have nothing to lose. Nobody expects them to win. Then again, few people expected this trio to be in the Chase, either.
Kahne went nearly three months without a top-five finish, but he turned his season around with a victory on June 21. Kahne added a victory earlier this month at Atlanta Motor Speedway. A confidence-building victory could make Kahne a top contender.
Vickers made an amazing push, including a victory at the Carfax 400 in Michigan, to qualify for the Chase. The good news is that Vickers hasn’t finished outside the top 12 during the last nine races. The bad news is that the first Chase race is in Loudon, N.H., where Vickers finished 35th at the end of June.
Montoya is an intriguing contender. He made the Chase because he reined in his aggressive tendencies and took fewer gambles. Now that he’s in the Chase, however, Montoya can be more aggressive, making him a dark horse to win the championship.
THE USUAL SUSPECTS: Jeff Gordon, Carl Edwards. Gordon and Edwards can’t be counted out, but both drivers’ championship hopes are dampened by injuries.
Gordon is no longer a regular in the top five, as he was at the start of the year. But he does have three second-place finishes in the past 12 races, and he finished third last Saturday in Richmond. Gordon could win the Chase, but nagging back problems make that task more difficult.
Edwards, my preseason choice to win the Sprint Cup, hasn’t been to victory lane this year. His winless streak may be partially due to Roush Fenway Racing’s struggles. Not helping matters is the broken foot Edwards sustained two weeks ago while playing Frisbee.
TOP CONTENDERS: Tony Stewart, Mark Martin, Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson. Johnson, the three-time defending champion, is the favorite, but don’t count the others out.
Stewart has had a remarkable first season as a driver-owner, running away with the points lead. None of his three wins, however, came on Chase tracks. Furthermore, Stewart hasn’t cracked the top 10 in his last four races. He might not be able to turn it on again once the Chase begins.
In contrast to Stewart, Hamlin enters the Chase as NASCAR’s hottest driver. He’s been in the top 10 for the past six races, including victories at Pocono and last Saturday in Richmond. Hamlin finished third in the 2006 Chase as a rookie. He may finish higher this season.
The sentimental favorite is the 50-year-old Martin, who finished second overall four times, most recently in 2002. Can Martin, who won more races (four) than any of the other Chase contenders this season, shake the best-driver-never-to-win-a-championship tag? Don’t bet against him.
The Chase is Johnson’s time of year. There’s a reason he has won three straight championships. If you’re looking for a reason that Johnson won’t win, it’s that he finished outside the top 10, including a 33rd- and 36th-place finish, in five of the past six races. On the other hand, two of Johnson’s three victories this year came at Dover and Martinsville, both of which host Chase races.
PREDICTION: Johnson will hold off Martin … for second place. In this unpredictable year, I’m picking Hamlin to win it all.
