myerstownherald.com

By ERIC FISHER
Jimmie Johnson. Jimmie Johnson. Jimmie Johnson.
OK, now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s look at the race for second place.
Seriously, when NASCAR kicks off its Sprint Cup Series this Sunday with the Daytona 500, the overriding question will be whether anyone can overtake Johnson, who has won the last four NASCAR championships. Johnson is the gold standard. Will he win an unprecedented fifth straight title?
The following is a preview of the 2010 season. We’ll examine the issues, the questions and the drivers. But it will all be in context of “Who can catch Jimmie Johnson?”
Why should we expect anyone to be able to catch Johnson?
If Johnson continues at his current level, nobody will catch him. So why should anyone expect Johnson’s performance will drop off? Johnson and his wife are expecting their first child in July. Maybe, after the baby is born, Johnson’s priorities will change and his unmatched preparation will tail off just a little bit. Yes, we’re grasping at straws. But this is a glimmer of light for Johnson’s competitors.
Can anyone compete with Hendrick Motorsports?
The domination of Hendrick Motorsports extends well beyond Johnson. Hendrick swept the top three spots in the standings last year, with Mark Martin and Jeff Gordon finishing second and third, respectively. Dale Earnhardt Jr., in 25th place, was the only Hendrick driver outside the top three. The fact that Martin and Earnhardt earned front-row starting positions for the Daytona 500 is a good omen for Hendrick. Other teams may narrow the gap, but Hendrick should still be the top team.
Can any of the other Hendrick Motorsports drivers overtake Johnson?
Martin was the only serious challenger to Johnson’s throne last season. Martin, the best driver never to win a NASCAR championship, made a successful return to a full-time schedule by winning five races and finishing as the overall runner-up for the fifth time. At age 51, Martin will once again be a sentimental favorite to capture his first crown.
Gordon is another potential challenger. He had more top 10 finishes (25) than any other driver last year despite battling a sore back. If Gordon can reach victory lane a few more times than last year, when he did it once, he could challenge Johnson. I expect Earnhardt to improve dramatically, but not enough to challenge for the overall title.\
Could any of the non-Hendrick drivers who qualified for the Chase last year challenge Johnson?
Kasey Kahne, Juan Pablo Montoya, Ryan Newman and Brian Vickers all had fine seasons in 2009 and may continue their success in 2010. None of them, however, has the consistency and organization to contend for a championship.
Denny Hamlin, with four wins last year while finishing fifth, was considered a threat to catch Johnson until he tore the ACL in his left knee on Jan. 22. You can drive a car with a torn ACL, especially in the left knee, but it’s difficult to believe the lack of stability in that knee won’t affect his performance.
Carl Edwards, anointed the top challenger before last season, failed to win a race as Roush Fenway Racing struggled. Expect Edwards to win races this year and perhaps regain that mantle as the top challenger. Tony Stewart has the competitiveness and talent to challenge Johnson. Kurt Busch and Greg Biffle have outside shots at being serious contenders.
Could any driver who didn’t qualify for last year’s Chase challenge Johnson?
Kyle Busch is the obvious answer. The mercurial Busch finished 13th last season despite having four wins, as many as anyone except Johnson and Martin. Busch has talent and the drive to succeed. The question is whether he can control his emotions and avoid making too many enemies, especially with NASCAR loosening the reins on aggressive driving.
Will NASCAR’s attempts to create more excitement by allowing more bumping affect Johnson?
The additional leeway given to drivers to aggressively bump and draft in close quarters adds an element of unpredictability. Predictability favors the status quo, which favors Johnson. Unpredictability favors change, which works against Johnson. An accident or two at inopportune times could bring Johnson back to the pack and derail his championship train. NASCAR’s encouragement of more aggressive driving could be the greatest threat to King Jimmie’s championship reign.
Who will qualify for the Chase?
This is a tougher chore than in recent years. Consider that Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, Clint Bowyer, Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr. and Earnhardt all finished outside the top 12 last season.
Let’s start with Hendrick’s big three of Johnson, Martin and Gordon. Edwards and Stewart should qualify. Kyle Busch is too good not to qualify for the Chase again. The acceptance of aggressive driving perfectly fits Montoya’s style. Hamlin barely hangs in there with his knee injury. The final four spots are filled by Kurt Busch, Biffle, Vickers and … Junior!
Who will win the Sprint Cup?
Johnson adds one for the thumb. But he will be severely tested this year. 3. Mark Martin; 2. Kyle Busch; 1. Jimmie Johnson.